Spatio-temporal variability and rainfall trend affects seasonal calendar of maize production in southern central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Understanding rainfall variability is important to establish crop calendar related agronomic decisions. To this end, we defined start and end of seasons, analyzed dry spell evaluated conditional risks alternative planting dates using a thirty years daily data across southern central rift valley Ethiopia. Results showed that the probability annual being greater than 1000 mm was 97, 24, 94, 61%, in Dilla, Bilate, Shamana, Hawassa clusters, respectively. The total lowland areas Dilla Bilate above 25%, whereas for Shamana below 20%. Variability seasonal during FMAM 33.7%, which higher ONDJ (27.1%) JJAS (27.9%), could lead maize plants suffering moisture stress season. onset rains had 29.2, 19.5, 17.5 26.5%, also LGP 22.8, 22.1, 21.2 20.3% Hawassa, Moreover clusters are hit by agricultural drought one out 2.61, 2.3, 2.5 years, Model based analysis risk farmers success rate less 10, 7, 40 63% variety However, taker farmers’ anticipated model. who take were encouraged cluster local edaphic, physiographic, socioeconomic climatic differences. Hence, there need seek real time agro-metrological advisory follow necessary tactical strategic farming Moreover, incorporate factors with modern climate models obtain synchronized estimates.